low attractivenesshigh
Subsidy neededSelect a territory for the detailed calculation

Market Intelligence

Which territories pay for themselves – and which only with subsidy?

In network rollout the choice of territory decides the return, not the technology. We do the maths on your build areas before the first excavator moves.

2,500
1,2005,000

Move the slider: the map recolours as soon as a territory falls below your cost ceiling.

Commercially viable
82 %of households
Beyond market reach
7.4 Mio.households, subsidy territory
Priority territories
220high market attractiveness

Schematic model on synthetic territory data, calibrated to the nationwide commercially viable rollout rate of 82 % and a fibre rate of 36 % of households. The map does not represent real municipalities; the calculation is the one we apply to your own data in a project.

Where the market stands

Half built – and half of that unused

Fibre rollout in Germany is neither finished nor evenly distributed. The return sits in that unevenness, and it can be calculated before it becomes visible.

36 %of the 41.3 million households have fibre; for businesses it is 41 % of 3.6 million.Breitbandatlas 06/2024, cited by BMDS
82 %commercially viable rollout rate nationwide – after the January 2025 recalculation, previously 91 %.BMDS, potential analysis
27 %take-up rate: only about a quarter of passed households actually order a connection.BREKO market analysis 2025
22.1 mbuildings and 44.9 million connections make up the dataset the nationwide analysis runs on.BMDS, potential analysis

The decision

Four questions rollout projects hang on

Civil engineering capacity is scarcer than the number of possible territories. Each of these questions is usually answered from experience – and can be calculated instead.

Question 01

Where is rollout worth it first?

Household density, competitor bandwidths and investment cost per connection produce a ranking rather than a wish list.

Question 02

Which buildings first?

Dwelling units, floors and building use decide effort and return per connection – and therefore the rollout order.

Question 03

Where can civil works be saved?

In detailed planning every metre counts. Parcels, building footprints and new-build clusters shorten routes before they are planned.

Question 04

How do we hit the pre-sales rate?

Typically 30 to 40 percent of contracts must be signed before construction starts. Audience and building data show where field sales works.

Services

What we deliver

Not a data subscription but a basis for decisions: territories with numbers, assumptions and a ranking you can follow. The examples come from network rollout – the same calculation answers branch, site and service-area questions.

Territory economics

Investment cost per connection against your investment ceiling – territory by territory.

  • Cost model by municipality character: urban, semi-urban, rural
  • Break-even per build area and scenarios for upper and lower bounds
  • Ranking by capital commitment rather than gut feel

Location and competitor assessment

Who is on the ground, at what bandwidth, and how much market is left?

  • Available technologies and bandwidths per address
  • Competitor density at grid and municipality level
  • Market share scenarios under infrastructure competition

Coverage and gap analysis

The gap between rollout potential and fibre rate shows where market is left.

  • Reconciled against the official coverage filings
  • White spots, remaining areas and subsidy territory reported separately
  • Handed over as map, table and municipality key

Steering pre-sales

The rate before construction decides the economics of the whole territory.

  • Audiences by socio-economic traits and usage behaviour
  • Buildings with a high closing probability first
  • Field sales and campaign areas instead of blanket coverage

Infill and monitoring

After construction the cheapest revenue is left on the table: connections on existing infrastructure.

  • Identify undecided households in passed areas
  • Track take-up development per territory
  • Quarterly refresh of the territory assessment

Subsidy strategy and tenders

Where the market does not carry a territory, the subsidy route decides its economics.

  • Draw clean boundaries around eligible remaining areas
  • Prepare documents for market consultation and application
  • Keep deadlines and assessment criteria in view

How we work

From the data to the ranking

Four steps, six to ten weeks, and a model handed over that your team keeps running.

Step 1 · week 1–2

Data foundation

Official coverage data, building and address data and your own network and project data are consolidated and checked for reliability.

Step 2 · week 3–5

Territory model

Cost assumptions per category, coarse network logic and investment ceilings are set with you – documented openly, not as a black box.

Step 3 · week 5–8

Prioritisation

Every territory gets potential, cost, competitive position and the resulting rank – including the territories we advise against.

Step 4 · week 8–10

Handover

Map, dataset and model move into your systems. Your team changes assumptions itself and sees immediately what that does to the ranking.

Limits of the method

What a model calculation does not do

A territory calculation is a basis for decisions, not construction planning. What it cannot do we say up front — not in the closing report.

  1. 01It does not replace detailed network planning. A potential analysis averages cost and investment levels; it is not route planning.
  2. 02It does not replace the market consultation procedure, which remains required under EU law for subsidised rollout.
  3. 03It does not say when construction happens. Timing and scope are decided by the building companies and the available civil engineering capacity.
  4. 04Where data is thin, we say so. Assumptions sit visibly beside the result in the model, not in an appendix.

Data foundation

What the calculation stands on

Since the German Telecommunications Act of 1 December 2021, coverage filings must be address-precise. That makes the coverage situation reliably analysable for the first time.

Official sources

  • Breitbandatlas: availability in 100 × 100 metre grid cells
  • Federal potential analysis: commercially viable rollout potential per municipality
  • Subsidy projects, running and completed

Buildings and addresses

  • Households and businesses per address point
  • Building type, dwelling units, floors, use
  • Parcels, building footprints, new-build clusters
  • 3D building models for access points and cable routes

Market and demand

  • Socio-economic traits and usage behaviour
  • Available bandwidths and providers per address
  • Take-up development in passed areas

Next step

We will calculate one territory for you

Name a region you already have on your list. You get the territory calculation with the assumptions laid open — and can hold our result against your own.

Or call us directly:+49 800 006 04 21
  • Intro call free and without obligation
  • An answer within one working day
  • Results in six to ten weeks
  • Model and dataset hand over to your team

Sources

  1. Federal Ministry for Digital and State Modernisation: potential analysis on fibre rollout. Coverage of 36 % of roughly 41.3 million households and 41 % of about 3.6 million businesses (Breitbandatlas cut-off 06/2024); commercially viable rollout rate of 82 % after the January 2025 recalculation; dataset of 44.9 million connections and around 22.1 million buildings. bmds.bund.de
  2. Federal government gigabit strategy: fibre connections for all households and businesses by 2030. bmds.bund.de
  3. Federal Network Agency, Breitbandatlas: address-precise coverage filings since the Telecommunications Act took effect on 01/12/2021; availability shown in 100 × 100 metre grid cells. gigabitgrundbuch.bund.de
  4. BREKO market analysis 2025: fibre rollout rate of 52.8 % (homes passed, as of June 2025), take-up rate around 27 %. brekoverband.de

The map in the header is a schematic model calculation on synthetic territory data. It is calibrated to the figures cited above but does not represent real municipalities. Cost ranges per connection are indicative and vary strongly with settlement structure and civil engineering conditions.